60.9. STRONG LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 1981

Now by independence again, {Sn,Xn+1,Xn+2, · · ·} are independent and so the above equals∫S−1

n (U)XY−1(V )E (Xk|σ (Sn))dP =

∫(Sn,Y)−1(U×V )

E (Xk|σ (Sn))dP.

Letting

S ≡{

A ∈B(R×RN

):∫(Sn,Y)−1(A)

E (Xk|σ (Sn))dP

=∫(Sn,Y)−1(A)

E (Xk|σ (Sn,Y))dP}

the above has shown this is true for all A in a countable basis. Therefore, it is true for all Aopen in R×RN. Finally, it is clear that S is a σ algebra which shows the above holds forall A Borel in R×RN. Thus, for all B ∈ σ (Sn,Y) ,∫

BE (Xk|σ (Sn))dP =

∫B

E (Xk|σ (Sn,Y))dP

and thus E (Xk|σ (Sn)) = E (Xk|σ (Sn,Y)) a.e.It only remains to prove the last assertion. For k > 0,

Xn+k = Sn+k−Sn+k−1

Thus

σ (Sn,Y) = σ (Sn,Xn+1, · · ·)= σ (Sn,(Sn+1−Sn) ,(Sn+2−Sn+1) , · · ·)⊆ σ (Sn,Sn+1, · · ·)

On the other hand,

σ (Sn,Sn+1, · · ·) = σ (Sn,Xn+1 +Sn,Xn+2 +Xn+1 +Sn, · · ·)⊆ σ (Sn,Xn+1,Xn+2, · · ·)

To see this, note that for an open set, and hence for a Borel set, B,(Sn +

m

∑k=n+1

Xk

)−1

(B) = (Sn,Xn+1, · · · ,Xm)−1 (B′)

for some B′ ∈ Rm+1. Thus(Sn +∑

mk=n+1 Xk

)−1(B) for B a Borel set is contained in

σ (Sn,Xn+1,Xn+2, · · ·)

Similar considerations apply to the other inclusion stated earlier. This proves the lemma.

Lemma 60.9.2 Let {Xk} be a sequence of independent identically distributed random vari-ables such that E (|Xk|)< ∞. Then letting Sn = ∑

nk=1 Xk, it follows that for k ≤ n

E (Xk|σ (Sn,Sn+1, · · ·)) = E (Xk|σ (Sn)) =Sn

n.

60.9. STRONG LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS 1981Now by independence again, {S,,,Xn+1,Xn42,°-: } are independent and so the above equalsa E (X;\0 (S,,))dP = E (X,|0 (S,,)) dP.how v1) (®lo Sn)) (Sn.Y)!(UxV) (Xe (Sn))Lettinggy = \Aca(Rxr®): | E(X,\0 (S,)) dP{aca(RxR®):[ EC%lo(s)=|; vy gE elo (Ss. ¥)) abthe above has shown this is true for all A in a countable basis. Therefore, it is true for all Aopen in R x RN. Finally, it is clear that .W is a o algebra which shows the above holds forall A Borel in R x RN. Thus, for all B€ o (Sn, Y),[EQiloSn)aP =f E(Xlo(S,,¥) aPB Band thus E (X;|o (S,)) = E (X,|6 (Sp, Y)) ae.It only remains to prove the last assertion. For k > 0,Xntk = Sn+k — Sn+k-1Thuso (Sn, Y) = 6 (Sn, Xn+15°°*)= (Sn, (Sn+1 Sn), (Sn42—Sn+1)5***)Cc 0 (Sn, Sn41,°°:)On the other hand,0 (Sn, Sn415°°*) = 6 (Sn, Xn41 +Sn,Xn42+Xn41+Sn,°°*)c 6 (Sn, Xn41,Xn425°°*)To see this, note that for an open set, and hence for a Borel set, B,-1— -l(prSint y? Xx (B) = (Sn,Xn415°** »Xm) (B’)k=n+1for some B’ € R*!. Thus (Sn + Deny 1 Xe) ~' (B) for B a Borel set is contained inoO (Sn, Xn41 Xn42, vt )Similar considerations apply to the other inclusion stated earlier. This proves the lemma.Lemma 60.9.2 Let {X;,} be a sequence of independent identically distributed random vari-ables such that E (|X,|) < °°. Then letting Sy = Li_, Xx, it follows that fork <nE (X;|0 (Sn, Sn+is+*:)) = E (X;|0 (Sn)) _ *.